A recent MLive report stated Discover Southwest Michigan was offering a $5,000 down payment assistance for first time home buyers who moved to the Tri-county area of Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren counties. That seems like a gimmick, but folks who currently reside nearby may take them up on their offer. More young families, starting homes here is a good thing.
What are the population statistics in the Tri-county area and why was this down payment assistance even considered?
According to the 2000 Census, the Tri-county area had a total population of just over 291,800. In 2024, the Census estimates that our total population has decreased by 11,400 people to approximately 280,400, a decline of 4 percent. During that same time, the Census estimates that Michigan’s total population grew by 2 percent from 9,938,000 to 10,140,000. Michigan in 2000 was the eighth largest state. By 2024, the Census estimates that Michigan was number 10 in rankings. Georgia and North Carolina have leap-frogged Michigan’s population.
Breaking the data down by county, the estimated decline in the population in the Tri-county area is solely attributable to a decline in population in Berrien County. The Census estimates that Berrien County’s population has declined by 11,700 people in the 21st Century. Cass and Van Buren Counties have seen slight change in population since we were all worried about Y2K.
With Labor Day behind us, schools in the area have welcomed students back to their classrooms. The official count day is weeks away. As a result, we will not know official student enrollments for districts until October. The decline in population does impact K-12 student enrollments. Last fall 2024, approximately 40,229 FTE students were enrolled in classrooms in the Tri-county area according to State Aid Financial Status Reports. Five years before that in fall 2019, the same reports list 43,475 FTE students. That is a decline of 7.5 percent in just five years. (Note, this data includes only students in Tri-county classrooms not in off campus or virtual sites in other counties.)
Of the thirty-eight school districts in the Tri-county area, 10 percent have seen enrollment increases in the last five years, meaning 90 percent have seen enrollment declines.
Unless something changes, the trends continue to show reductions in the future for area school districts. The Michigan Department of Health reports live births by county. Generally, students who entered schools last fall were born five years earlier. In 2019, 2,979 children were born in area hospitals. Last year 2024, the number of new births had declined to 2,323, a decline of 22 percent in just five years. Keep in mind some children arriving in schools last fall were born in hospitals in other areas. Still, the State of Michigan indicates that 3,887 children were born in our area in 2000.
All this data feels pessimistic to me. Not only does a decline in population affect schools, but it means fewer shoppers for local businesses. It may make it harder for businesses to recruit employees. While I am glad that Discover Southwest Michigan is raising awareness of the issue, more needs to be done. But what?
Overall, we need to attract more people to move to our area. We need to retain young people in our area rather than have them move to Chicago, Grand Rapids, and elsewhere. How? Jobs, jobs, jobs. But beyond that, there is a need for more affordable housing in our area. Southwestern Michigan and Lake Michigan have done an excellent job as community colleges, but we also need to expand college opportunities in our area. If students complete their degrees locally, would they be more willing to remain local and closer to family members? Yes, not all students are college bound, so additional career and technical training in the trades and health care are warranted.
According to the conservative Tax Foundation, Michigan has a lower state and local tax rate per capita than all the other Great Lakes states. In fact, Michigan has a lower per capita tax rate than thirty-seven other states. Indiana has higher sales tax. Their state income tax is lower, but every county in Indiana has a county income tax making their total income taxes higher. Yes, business is impacted by taxes, but in our area demographic factors may be more of a factor.
Our area prides itself on our quality of life here. We need to start a conversation to enhance that and tout Southwest Michigan as the place to live, work, and study.
No comments:
Post a Comment